What is a trend?

The word “trend” is used worldwide in multiple ways and with different meanings. It is often associated with fashion or aesthetic trends, but also with hypes: short-lived tendencies that are temporarily popular and considered “hot.”

When it comes to societal trends, the word “trend” is often linked to (growing) tendencies identified through data analysis. The focus then tends to be on results that provide insight into what the majority thinks or does, and therefore on what is considered mainstream. As a result, the undercurrent remains out of sight, even though this is precisely where innovation and social shifts take place.

The undercurrent

Societal shifts and changes in social norms take place outside the mainstream. What is perceived as mainstream is not necessarily the same as what the majority does, says, or believes. The tipping point of social norm change generally lies around 25 percent, although it can range between 5 and 40 percent. This is also known as the “25 percent rule.” A relatively small group can therefore have a decisive impact on what the majority perceives as mainstream.

To illustrate: vegetarians are a minority in the Netherlands. Yet, particularly in large cities, vegetarianism is perceived as normal. Another recognizable example is the “sudden rise” of woke. Although this phenomenon had been developing within the undercurrent for years, it appeared to cause an abrupt shift in social norms. Shifts at the margins of society are therefore crucial in societal trend research.

What is simmering in this undercurrent is fueled, in part, by changemakers: the creative and innovative forefront. This process is also described in innovation theory: from changemaker to mainstream, from mainstream to laggard.

Changes in values and needs gradually permeate the everyday lives of more and more people, eventually either becoming mainstream or losing momentum and remaining niche. Societal trends therefore do not change on a weekly or yearly basis.

MARE’s vision

MARE provides insight into consumers’ values, needs, and motivations. The consumer is never viewed separately from the broader societal context. To understand consumers, both now and in the future, it is essential to consider the bigger picture.

MARE is convinced that mapping this undercurrent provides crucial insights for anticipating shifting consumer lifestyles.

Trends and cultural insights at MARE

MARE’s Anticipate aims to map “the consumer of the future.” We seek to provide insight into new, emerging developments that we expect to become important in the future.

By focusing on new societal developments and analyzing them in depth, we are able to forecast which shifts are likely to become significant.

We use a trend research methodology grounded in cultural insights: changes that are visible within society. We monitor the undercurrent and focus on changemakers. Insights from data are used only as part of a broader societal analysis.